The big news today is Apple’s new iPad announcement, an event whose usual Apple drama was upstaged by a surprise visit by Steve Jobs. The essence of the announcement was familiar; iPads are making us smarter, healthier, richer, better looking, and so forth, and that’s from the first version. Now look what’s going to happen!
What is going to happen? Well, 2011 is the “Year of the Copycats” according to Jobs, but Apple isn’t resting on its laurels. The iPad 2 is based on a new dual-core chip that’s twice as fast, with new nine-times-faster graphics, front-and-rear-facing video cameras, built-in gyro, 33% thinner (thinner than an iPhone 4)—you get the picture. The new model will source HDMI at up to 1080p, which makes it a logical companion to HDTVs and probably presages more Apple work there. Network-wise, it’s not breaking any ground yet—still 3G and WiFi and no LTE or WiMAX. Pricing is the same; starting at about five hundred bucks. Overall, it’s a major upgrade in performance and a modest improvement in features—the improvement being the dual cameras.
The new iPad 2 will certainly make things harder for the Android guys, particularly those who like Motorola have just announced their own tablets. The current Android lot are just about equal at best to the iPad, though most are significantly heavier/thicker, and the new iPad 2 trumps that form factor. There’s a lot of clever engineering in the gadget, even to magnetic catches on the cover that are sensed by the device and used to trigger a power-up when the cover is removed. But you really don’t expect to see a cover demonstration on video at a launch event. Apple is rising to the challenge of competition, but it’s also showing that even its own dramatically innovative culture can’t create a revolution every year. The biggest bison can still be dragged down by a large pack of even little wolves.
But in the meantime, we do have a clear trend to follow. Appliances are going to get lighter and more convenient but also more powerful, with better and better video. That’s going to make enterprises look even harder at using tablets for worker empowerment, and it’s going to make tablets a more and more attractive way to consume video, making multi-screen strategies all the more important. And most of all, we’re seeing yet again that the market is in the hands of the consumer device vendors. Nobody else is making any real progress being exciting. Without excitement there’s no engagement with the media. Without media engagement there’s no ability to market.
In the mobile space, Verizon has decided to eliminate its unlimited-usage iPhone plan in favor of usage pricing, and if anyone thinks that usage pricing isn’t going to be universal for mobile broadband now and wireline broadband soon, they’re delusional. Already the media is lamenting the death of the “bandwidth fairy” and beating their breast about the impact this will have on consumers and on the Internet. Hey, I want a free iPad, and a nice Audi A8 for twenty bucks, and I could really use a Nikon D3 with a 70-200 VR lens (just ship it; no need to send a note to see if somebody already sent one because I can use as many as you provide!) The market’s not made up of wants but of exchanges of goods or services for dollars. There has to be a willingness to exchange.
AT&T, who has been into usage pricing for mobile broadband for some time, is also becoming a major carrier proponent of cloud services, and announcements are expected from other providers through the spring. Cloud computing is a perfect space for network operators because they’re experts at providing services with a low ROI, and that means better pricing and faster market uptake. In fact, it’s a testament to the problems of revenue per bit on broadband access and Internet services that cloud computing is considered a profit opportunity. Cloudsourcing applications have to be significantly (22-35%) cheaper to be credible. What makes network operators so interested is that their own cloud infrastructure (for OSS/BSS and feature/content hosting) will create formidable economies of scale if they’re done right. That makes the operator a cost leader in a cost-driven market.
You have to wonder everything technical is going to become either a consumer plaything or a service of a giant telco, simply because we’re losing the ability to communicate with the market. Jobs, even on medical leave, has more star power than anyone else in tech, maybe more than everyone else combined.
